The 18-point drop puts Trump underwater on immigration and border security, a signature issue for his administration. The numbers do not settle the policy debate, but they point to softer support among a politically crucial group.
Donald Trump’s approval on immigration and border security fell 18 points in a new NBC News Decision Desk poll, making clear why the issue is drawing attention: immigration has been one of his strongest political issues. The survey found that 40% approve and 60% disapprove of his handling of immigration and border security, compared with 49% approval and 51% disapproval in April 2025.
The shift moved Trump’s net rating on the issue from -2 to -20, an 18-point decline. Independent voters also shifted away from Trump’s handling of immigration and border security, pointing to weaker support among a group that can be pivotal in national elections. The results suggest immigration is becoming a less reliable source of voter support for Trump, even as the White House argues its enforcement agenda remains aligned with voters.
For an administration that has made tougher border enforcement and mass deportations central promises of its second term, the findings indicate immigration may be becoming a weaker source of voter support rather than the reliable political advantage it once was.
A 20-point deficit on a signature issue
The NBC News Decision Desk survey was conducted among 21,995 adults from January 27 through February 6. Its reported margin of error was plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Trump’s 40% approval and 60% disapproval put him 20 points underwater on the issue. The decline from the April 2025 reading is notable both because it exceeds the poll’s stated margin of error and because immigration has often been seen as an area of relative strength for Trump.
Still, an approval measure has limits. The finding does not show that 60% of respondents oppose stricter immigration policy, nor does it identify why respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration and border security. It records a public judgment of the administration’s approach at the time the survey was conducted.
Independents may be driving the movement
Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst for NBC News’ Decision Desk, said independents accounted for much of the movement. That matters because closely contested elections can turn on voters who are not firmly attached to either major party.
Trump’s coalition includes voters who favor a more restrictive approach to the border and deportations. But voters can support a policy goal while taking issue with how an administration executes it, the tone it adopts, individual enforcement actions or the broader consequences of those actions.
That distinction complicates the usual political framing. Immigration debates are frequently cast as a choice between enforcement and openness, but voters may favor border security while also objecting to particular tactics, outcomes or uses of federal authority in their communities.
Enforcement is central to Trump’s agenda
Trump campaigned on securing the border, expanding deportations and carrying out what he described as the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history. His administration has presented those plans as a response to what it calls an immigration crisis inherited from the prior administration.
That makes the polling shift politically significant. Immigration is not a peripheral policy area for Trump; it is bound up with his broader case about leadership, public safety, the border and the limits of government.
Recent enforcement operations have also received heightened scrutiny. Newsweek reported that fatal shootings involving federal immigration officers in Minneapolis in January drew public backlash: Alex Pretti was killed on January 24, and Renee Nicole Good was killed on January 7.
The circumstances, investigations and public interpretations of such cases matter to the broader debate. Immigration enforcement is not only a question of policy targets or border-crossing numbers; it also raises questions about how federal power is exercised inside U.S. communities and how agencies are held accountable.
The White House defends its mandate
The White House rejects the idea that its agenda is out of step with voters. Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, told Newsweek that Trump was elected after promising mass deportations and that the administration is working to fulfill that commitment.
Jackson defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers as professional and said their work protects Americans from what the administration describes as criminal illegal aliens. The administration’s position is that it is delivering on an election mandate, not backing away from it.
Supporters may view tougher enforcement as overdue and judge the policy primarily through border control and deportation results. Critics argue that a security-focused approach also must be weighed against due process, the treatment of families and communities, and the conduct of federal agents.
The NBC poll does not resolve those competing arguments. It does, however, indicate that the administration’s handling of the issue is encountering more resistance than it did earlier in Trump’s term.
Other polling points in a similar direction
A Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Newsweek found 39% approval and 53% disapproval of Trump’s performance on immigration. Conducted among 1,139 U.S. adults from January 23 through January 25, that survey had a reported margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points and showed approval down from 41% in its prior reading.
Poll results should not be treated as interchangeable. Surveys differ in wording, field dates and methodology, and a single poll is a snapshot rather than a verdict on public opinion.
But the shared direction of the NBC News Decision Desk and Reuters/Ipsos findings is meaningful context: both suggest that Trump’s immigration ratings have softened. At the same time, an InsiderAdvantage national survey reportedly put Trump’s overall approval at 50%, his highest level in weeks.
Overall approval and approval on immigration measure different things. The contrast underscores that public opinion can be mixed and volatile, even when an issue has been central to a president’s political identity.
Why the next readings matter
If the decline persists, Trump could lose some of the political insulation that comes from being trusted on a signature priority. For Democrats and other critics, the numbers may offer an opening on an issue where Republicans have often held an advantage.
That opening is not automatic. To capitalize on it, critics would still need to convince voters that they support credible border management alongside civil-liberties protections.
What remains unclear is whether this is a temporary response to intense news coverage or a more durable reassessment of Trump’s approach. For now, the narrowest conclusion is also the clearest: Trump’s approval on immigration and border security has fallen substantially since April 2025, and independents appear to be an important part of that shift.
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