The estimates offer one reading of the political climate before the midterms, especially in closely contested states. They are not separate surveys of every state, and the White House disputes their broader significance.
Donald Trump’s approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating in only three states: Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming. The figures are The Economist’s estimates based on YouGov polling data, and they show Trump underwater in the other 47 states and the District of Columbia—a broad geographic picture that could matter as the midterm elections approach.
Wyoming has the strongest estimated net approval at +14, followed by Idaho at +9 and West Virginia at +6. The numbers may help define the political environment around congressional races, but they are modeled estimates rather than independent polls conducted in every state.
Three states show positive approval
Net approval measures the gap between the share of people who approve of a president’s job performance and the share who disapprove. A positive score means approval is ahead; a negative score means disapproval is ahead.
In The Economist tracker, Wyoming is the sole state with a double-digit positive net approval estimate for Trump, at +14. Idaho’s estimate is +9, and West Virginia’s is +6.
All three are strongly Republican states, so their position at the favorable end of the map is not surprising. The more striking part of the estimate is its narrowness: the tracker puts Trump below zero even in most states he carried in 2024.
Battleground estimates point lower
The state figures are particularly notable in places likely to receive close attention in congressional campaigns. The tracker estimates Trump’s net approval at -23 in Arizona, -31 in Georgia, -27 in Michigan and Nevada, -26 in Pennsylvania, and -28 in Wisconsin.
Those states do not all face the same races, voters or local conditions. Still, they are places where candidates may weigh how closely to associate themselves with the White House while confronting questions about national leadership and issues closer to home.
Presidential approval can influence a campaign’s broader atmosphere, but it is not a direct measure of how individual House or Senate contests will end. Candidate strength, spending, turnout, local concerns and congressional district lines can each alter the result.
The widest deficits are blue
The District of Columbia has the tracker’s lowest estimated net approval for Trump, at -83. Vermont and Maryland follow at -50, while Hawaii is estimated at -48, Washington at -42 and Illinois at -41. Connecticut and Rhode Island are each listed at -40.
That distribution generally resembles the 2024 presidential map. Trump’s best ratings appear in reliably Republican territory, while some of his worst are in states carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris.
But the estimates do not divide neatly along party lines. Negative numbers in Trump-won battleground states suggest that the map reflects more than the states’ past presidential voting alone. It presents a split picture: positive standing among a small core of states, alongside weaker job-approval estimates across much of the country.
Why the estimates need caution
The tracker is not the same as 51 separately conducted state polls. The Economist produces these state-level projections using YouGov polling data and statistical modeling; the tracker also identifies FiftyPlusOne and The Economist among its sources.
That approach can be useful when frequent, high-quality polling is not available in every state. It also means the final numbers depend on the underlying polling, the model’s assumptions and the way the information is weighted.
The estimates can change as additional responses are collected and the tracker updates. They should not be treated as exact measurements of state opinion or as forecasts of voting outcomes.
There is another reason for restraint: polls have recently missed some of Trump’s support. Trump outperformed many pre-election expectations across his three presidential campaigns, making any current approval estimate an incomplete guide to future electoral behavior.
The White House contests the reading
The White House rejected the idea that the tracker should carry major political weight. Spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that the “ultimate poll” was the November 5, 2024 election, when nearly 80 million Americans elected Trump.
Ingle also argued that the administration is delivering on jobs, inflation and housing affordability. The response underscores a basic disagreement over what an approval tracker captures and what voters should consider most meaningful.
Trump supporters may regard the 2024 result and the administration’s agenda as more significant than a current polling model. Critics may see the state estimates as evidence that dissatisfaction has moved beyond Democratic strongholds. Both views can exist alongside the same limitation: approval measures sentiment at a particular time, while elections test turnout and choices among actual candidates.
Midterms will test the broader mood
Every voting seat in the House will be on the ballot in the midterms, along with roughly one-third of the Senate. Control of Congress will affect Trump’s ability to advance his agenda and determine whether Democrats gain committee power to investigate federal agencies and administration policies.
The fight is also being reshaped by redistricting. Texas Republicans approved new congressional boundaries at Trump’s urging that could help the GOP gain five House seats. California voters backed a map intended to give Democrats opportunities to offset as many as five seats.
That leaves the approval map as a useful but limited political signal. Trump’s standing may influence the national mood, yet the balance of power will be decided district by district, through candidate quality, turnout, local issues and the changing lines of the contests themselves.
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